Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4566 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4566 BWI 06:55 → BUF 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 894 BWI 13:00 → BUF 14:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4566 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:55	BUF 08:10	5%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 1963 Southwest	BWI 06:35	BUF 07:54	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 973 Southwest	BWI 10:45	BUF 12:04	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 762 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:50	BUF 12:05	11%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 945 Southwest	BWI 12:50	BUF 14:09	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4577 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:55	BUF 00:15	21%	9%	0.6%	68%
WN 768 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:55	BUF 19:15	22%	10%	0.6%	58%
WN 894 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:00	BUF 14:15	22%	7%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON