Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1708 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1708 BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3075 BWI 12:36 → CLT 14:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1708 American Flight history →	BWI 05:02	CLT 06:26	9%	4%	1.9%	96%
AA 2670 American Flight history →	BWI 06:15	CLT 07:53	11%	4%	1.9%	95%
WN 148 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:15	CLT 09:55	14%	3%	0.9%	81%
AA 1216 American	BWI 09:41	CLT 11:18	16%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1635 American Flight history →	BWI 10:06	CLT 11:39	18%	5%	1.3%	85%
AA 846 American Flight history →	BWI 13:55	CLT 15:32	22%	6%	1.2%	72%
WN 49 Southwest	BWI 14:05	CLT 15:36	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 915 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:05	CLT 21:45	22%	5%	0.6%	56%
AA 2286 American	BWI 13:31	CLT 15:02	23%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 914 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	CLT 15:25	24%	4%	0.6%	65%
AA 1637 American Flight history →	BWI 20:18	CLT 21:55	24%	6%	1.3%	63%
F9 3075 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:36	CLT 14:12	30%	10%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON