Today: WN 4524 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet today WN 4524 BWI 10:45 → CMH 12:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 982 BWI 22:30 → CMH 23:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4524 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:45	CMH 12:10	10%	1%	0.2%	93%
WN 980 Southwest	BWI 10:33	CMH 12:02	10%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 4157 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:25	CMH 23:55	25%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 921 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:00	CMH 18:25	26%	3%	0.4%	70%
WN 1590 Southwest	BWI 17:10	CMH 18:39	26%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 982 Southwest	BWI 22:30	CMH 23:59	27%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON