Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4157 · BWI → CMH
departs 10:25 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 0.666667 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.