Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4157 · BWI → CMH
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 12:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 71%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.