Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4157 · BWI → CMH
departs 10:25 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.