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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4436 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4436 BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 4214 BWI 20:00 → DEN 22:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time
Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 4436 Southwest Flight history → BWI 06:05 DEN 07:50 8% 1% 0.2% 76%
WN 992 Southwest BWI 06:12 DEN 08:09 8% 1% 0.2% no record
UA 2412 United Flight history → BWI 08:30 DEN 10:25 11% 3% 0.2% 90%
WN 993 Southwest BWI 07:58 DEN 09:59 12% 1% 0.2% no record
WN 935 Southwest Flight history → BWI 07:25 DEN 09:15 12% 1% 0.2% 83%
WN 275 Southwest Flight history → BWI 09:40 DEN 11:25 14% 2% 0.2% 84%
WN 994 Southwest BWI 11:00 DEN 12:57 18% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 2012 United Flight history → BWI 16:23 DEN 18:18 19% 5% 0.6% 79%
WN 937 Southwest Flight history → BWI 12:50 DEN 14:35 20% 4% 0.6% 47%
WN 4010 Southwest BWI 22:00 DEN 23:58 22% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 552 Southwest BWI 18:22 DEN 20:23 22% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1406 Southwest BWI 16:52 DEN 18:53 23% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 4214 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:00 DEN 22:00 24% 4% 0.6% 71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → BWI 12:40 → MCI 14:15WN 3038 50m Kansas City MCI 15:05 → DEN 15:55WN 1563 5h 15m 75% 65%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435 1h 00m Chicago MDW 14:30 → DEN 16:01WN 2878 5h 31m 81% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON