Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2601 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2601 BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4159 BWI 18:00 → DTW 19:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2601 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:08	DTW 07:39	5%	2%	0.3%	94%
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	BWI 09:39	DTW 11:07	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	BWI 12:33	DTW 14:07	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:27	DTW 19:09	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 4477 Southwest	BWI 12:40	DTW 14:18	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3081 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 09:49	DTW 11:32	18%	9%	0.8%	75%
WN 942 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:40	DTW 00:20	21%	3%	0.6%	68%
WN 4159 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:00	DTW 19:35	24%	4%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON