Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2933 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2933 BWI 10:35 → ISP 11:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4321 BWI 22:25 → ISP 23:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2933 Southwest	BWI 10:35	ISP 11:57	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4691 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:40	ISP 11:50	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 1029 Southwest	BWI 13:17	ISP 14:37	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4816 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	ISP 08:20	14%	6%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
WN 966 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:20	ISP 14:30	14%	4%	0.7%	77%
WN 1148 Southwest	BWI 15:50	ISP 17:10	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4126 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:05	ISP 17:15	19%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 4321 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:25	ISP 23:40	19%	6%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON