Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:32 am at Baltimore)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	58m Denver	DEN 08:48 → LGB 10:15WN 1655	7h 10m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	7h 44m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049	2h 50m Phoenix	PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505	8h 55m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	BWI 12:50 → DEN 14:35WN 937	3h 40m Denver	DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037	10h 10m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 13:15 → LGB 15:30WN 4413	8h 55m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	BWI 12:25 → SMF 15:00WN 4476	3h 40m Sacramento	SMF 18:40 → LGB 20:16WN 3941	10h 51m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487	4h 00m Nashville	BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427	10h 05m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	BWI 12:50 → SJC 15:25WN 186	1h 40m San Jose	SJC 17:05 → LGB 18:25WN 3684	8h 35m	94%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:40 → AUS 12:05WN 866	1h 10m Austin	AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915	7h 30m	74%	54%
Southwest Details →	BWI 16:25 → PHX 18:15WN 1050	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 19:15 → LGB 20:35WN 4352	7h 10m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON