Today: WN 4349 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet today WN 4349 BWI 08:15 → MSY 10:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4567 BWI 21:20 → MSY 23:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4349 Southwest	BWI 08:15	MSY 10:13	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4692 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:25	MSY 11:05	16%	2%	0.3%	83%
WN 1092 Southwest	BWI 16:05	MSY 18:05	26%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 1093 Southwest	BWI 21:50	MSY 23:51	30%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4323 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:20	MSY 18:00	31%	6%	0.5%	39%
WN 4567 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:20	MSY 23:05	31%	6%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON