Today: WN 1097 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today WN 1097 BWI 10:33 → ORF 11:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1040 BWI 22:35 → ORF 23:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1097 Southwest	BWI 10:33	ORF 11:38	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1098 Southwest	BWI 12:32	ORF 13:37	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1100 Southwest	BWI 20:28	ORF 21:33	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2341 Southwest	BWI 22:40	ORF 23:45	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1040 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:35	ORF 23:40	26%	5%	0.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON