Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1131 BWI 08:09 → RDU 09:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 161 BWI 22:40 → RDU 23:55 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1131 Southwest	BWI 08:09	RDU 09:26	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest	BWI 10:43	RDU 12:02	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4442 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:35	RDU 12:45	13%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 733 Southwest	BWI 14:30	RDU 15:49	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 793 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:05	RDU 22:25	14%	4%	0.7%	62%
WN 183 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:45	RDU 19:05	15%	4%	0.7%	76%
WN 161 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:40	RDU 23:55	17%	4%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON