tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 8h 06m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 2h 10m Denver DEN 10:00 → SNA 11:23WN 2727 8h 18m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 46m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 7h 57m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 12:25 → SMF 15:00WN 4476 3h 30m Sacramento SMF 18:30 → SNA 20:00WN 3834 10h 35m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:44 → ORD 07:12AA 4659 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Chicago ORD 08:14 → SNA 10:33AA 2679 7h 49m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 27m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 34m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:25 → DEN 09:15WN 935 3h 30m Denver DEN 12:45 → SNA 14:09WN 1794 9h 44m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BWI 12:25 → SMF 15:00WN 4476 50m Sacramento SMF 15:50 → SNA 17:20WN 3833 7h 55m 69% 57%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 50m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 7h 47m 64% 54%
AmericanDetails → BWI 15:46 → DFW 18:12AA 1629 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806 7h 36m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON