Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:01 pm at Baltimore)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4621 at 19:55, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4621 Southwest	BWI 19:55	TYS 21:39	30%	7%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	6h 52m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 20:33 → TYS 22:12DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	4h 45m	89%	75%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → TYS 20:37DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	96%	74%
Southwest Details →	BWI 18:00 → BNA 19:00WN 879	1h 40m Nashville	BNA 20:40 → TYS 22:41WN 4523	4h 41m	92%	62%
American Details →	BWI 15:46 → DFW 18:12AA 1629	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51AA 1081	8h 05m	90%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON