tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:29, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 9h 06m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 14m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:57UA 1693 2h 18m Chicago ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 8h 20m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502 7h 16m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 05m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 9h 11m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:29 → DEN 18:23UA 1322 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 7h 12m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 10m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 39m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:15 → SLC 16:40DL 3916 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 5h 35m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 48m Chicago ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954 7h 02m 70% 56%
UnitedDetails → BZN 13:38 → EWR 20:01UA 2003 49m Newark EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425 9h 05m 52% 34%
AmericanDetails → BZN 16:14 → DFW 20:24AA 1647 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 5h 10m 51% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON