Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:47 am at Chattanooga)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4580 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHA 07:04	DCA 08:59	11%	3%	0.5%	94%
AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 06:11	DCA 08:01	15%	5%	1.3%	100%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 28m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → DCA 09:33AA 1977	4h 33m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29DL 1044	56m Atlanta	ATL 07:25 → DCA 09:16DL 926	3h 41m	92%	82%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 09:55 → DCA 12:55UA 1904	6h 55m	98%	81%
American Details →	CHA 06:13 → ORD 07:35AA 4512 · flown by Republic	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:16 → DCA 13:28AA 523	7h 15m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:41DL 3057	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798	6h 06m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	79%
American Details →	CHA 08:18 → CLT 09:55AA 6105 · flown by Piedmont	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA	4h 41m	92%	75%
American Details →	CHA 09:19 → CLT 10:56AA 6050 · flown by Piedmont	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	6h 54m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHA 19:19 → ATL 20:19DL 3579 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 33m	71%	55%
United Details →	CHA 16:42 → IAH 18:10UA 5047 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Houston	IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224	7h 17m	72%	54%
American Details →	CHA 16:22 → DFW 17:44AA 2121	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	6h 37m	70%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON