Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 pm at Chattanooga); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 42–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5047 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:42	IAH 18:10	42%	11%	0.6%	65%
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:43	IAH 17:57	46%	11%	0.6%	63%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 15:01 → DTW 16:50DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	3h 35m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633	8h 23m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:16DL 2327	6h 26m	96%	64%
Delta Details →	CHA 19:19 → ATL 20:19DL 3579 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	5h 38m	85%	59%
American Details →	CHA 16:22 → DFW 17:44AA 2121	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209	7h 02m	87%	54%
American Details →	CHA 20:14 → DFW 21:31AA 5115 · flown by PSA	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	4h 55m	76%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHA 20:11 → DFW 21:31AA 5471 · flown by PSA	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	4h 47m	61%	36%
American Details →	CHA 16:22 → DFW 17:44AA 2121	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	4h 32m	46%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON