Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2919 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2919 MDW 05:04 → MCO 08:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 486 ORD 17:12 → MCO 21:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2919 Southwest	MDW 05:04	MCO 08:38	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2815 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:10	MCO 08:40	3%	1%	1.0%	93%
UA 284 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	MCO 09:40	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 2816 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:30	MCO 10:05	6%	1%	0.8%	90%
WN 2817 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:00	MCO 11:35	8%	2%	0.7%	78%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	ORD 06:59	MCO 10:47	8%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 1645 American	ORD 06:59	MCO 10:45	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	12%	5%	0.8%	75%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	MCO 16:43	14%	7%	0.9%	78%
WN 2818 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	MCO 14:35	16%	5%	0.8%	59%
AA 2066 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	MCO 14:20	18%	5%	0.9%	69%
F9 2792 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 10:16	MCO 14:23	18%	7%	1.3%	74%
UA 609 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	MCO 17:57	19%	9%	0.9%	76%
WN 2821 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:55	MCO 00:35	19%	6%	1.0%	47%
AA 2089 American Flight history →	ORD 12:01	MCO 15:51	21%	7%	1.3%	54%
WN 2819 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:40	MCO 17:30	22%	9%	1.0%	55%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	ORD 17:56	MCO 21:55	23%	11%	0.8%	64%
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:10	MCO 20:55	23%	9%	1.2%	75%
WN 2820 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:35	MCO 22:10	25%	8%	1.2%	41%
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:45	MCO 22:40	31%	12%	2.7%	53%
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	33%	13%	3.6%	73%
AA 2064 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 19:03	33%	10%	1.8%	55%
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 17:12	MCO 21:05	37%	11%	1.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON