tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:50 pm at Charleston); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CHS 17:55 → MDW 19:10WN 4787 2h 30m Chicago MDW 21:40 → AUS 00:26 +1WN 2834 7h 31m 96% 66%
UnitedDetails → CHS 17:05 → IAH 19:01UA 6329 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 7h 07m 95% 64%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 16:45 → STL 17:50WN 493 3h 55m St Louis STL 21:45 → AUS 23:57WN 4038 8h 12m 98% 62%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 16:10 → BWI 17:45WN 470 2h 10m Baltimore BWI 19:55 → AUS 22:43WN 949 7h 33m 96% 60%
UnitedDetails → CHS 16:13 → DEN 18:14UA 557 2h 13m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 8h 31m 95% 60%
DeltaDetails → CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → AUS 00:18 +1DL 1335 6h 50m 97% 58%
DeltaDetails → CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081 6h 07m 97% 55%
AmericanDetails → CHS 16:55 → CLT 17:29AA 1927 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17AA 434 6h 22m 100% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CHS 17:05 → IAH 19:01UA 6329 · flown by Mesa 1h 17m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 5h 20m 71% 42%
AmericanDetails → CHS 19:53 → DFW 21:48AA 1662 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588 4h 58m 69% 40%
AmericanDetails → CHS 18:17 → CLT 19:40AA 5672 · flown by PSA 49m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17AA 434 5h 00m 67% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON