Today: UA 1289 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–45%.

Safest bet today UA 1289 CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2693 CHS 15:34 → EWR 17:37 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1289 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	EWR 07:59	5%	3%	1.1%	91%
UA 674 United Flight history →	CHS 11:13	EWR 13:15	17%	7%	1.1%	89%
UA 3416 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 19:29	EWR 21:36	44%	9%	5.1%	84%worse than usual
UA 2693 United Flight history →	CHS 15:34	EWR 17:37	45%	16%	1.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON