Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:55 pm at Charleston); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 1274 at 20:47, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


B6 1274 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 20:47	JFK 22:52	35%	14%	0.7%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	6h 22m	96%	77%
JetBlue Details →	CHS 18:40 → FLL 20:20B6 1131	1h 55m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 22:15 → JFK 01:18 +1B6 1902	6h 38m	85%	56%
American Details →	CHS 18:17 → CLT 19:40AA 5672 · flown by PSA	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	4h 43m	79%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHS 18:59 → CLT 20:02AA 3117	52m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	4h 01m	59%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON