Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:44 pm at Charleston); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2397 American	CHS 19:45	MIA 21:36	26%	10%	0.4%	no record
AA 1657 American Flight history →	CHS 20:13	MIA 21:58	28%	10%	0.4%	59%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	5h 11m	87%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON