Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:19 am at Charleston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 487 Southwest	CHS 13:25	STL 14:46	12%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 493 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 16:45	STL 17:50	17%	4%	0.2%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 25m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:37 → MSP 19:38DL 2463	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609	6h 45m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	CHS 17:55 → MDW 19:10WN 4787	2h 54m Chicago	MDW 22:04 → STL 23:22WN 1687	6h 27m	97%	77%
United Details →	CHS 11:31 → ORD 13:09UA 592	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000	5h 15m	92%	76%
United Details →	CHS 15:08 → ORD 16:54UA 3426 · flown by Republic	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → STL 21:04UA 1625	6h 56m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	CHS 13:00 → DTW 15:11DL 5431 · flown by Endeavor	1h 34m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	5h 24m	87%	73%
American Details →	CHS 12:44 → ORD 14:18AA 2452	49m Chicago	ORD 15:07 → STL 16:40AA 4537 · flown by Republic	4h 56m	80%	70%
American Details →	CHS 18:58 → CLT 20:02AA 3117	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459	6h 00m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHS 13:05 → ATL 14:20DL 3107	57m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:09DL 543	4h 04m	66%	49%
Delta Details →	CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48DL 1404	1h 03m New York	LGA 18:51 → STL 20:46DL 4926 · flown by Endeavor	6h 05m	72%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON