Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:51 pm at Cleveland); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4824 Southwest	CLE 21:00	BNA 21:42	16%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 4694 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 21:50	BNA 22:25	16%	8%	0.4%	63%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 21:43 → BNA 23:28UA 314	6h 23m	95%	78%
Southwest Details →	CLE 16:45 → MDW 17:05WN 1162	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073	4h 25m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	CLE 17:45 → BWI 19:05WN 4295	2h 15m Baltimore	BWI 21:20 → BNA 22:21WN 2668	5h 36m	95%	74%
American Details →	CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:59AA 4909 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Chicago	ORD 22:49 → BNA 00:28 +1AA 2151	7h 23m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	CLE 18:08 → ATL 20:13DL 880	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	6h 07m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	CLE 16:28 → ATL 18:22DL 2545	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	6h 16m	96%	69%
United Details →	CLE 16:20 → ORD 16:56UA 2315	2h 01m Chicago	ORD 18:57 → BNA 20:30UA 739	5h 10m	90%	67%
Southwest Details →	CLE 20:10 → MDW 20:25WN 1163	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → BNA 23:10WN 4091	4h 00m	83%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CLE 16:20 → ORD 16:56UA 2315	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 17:58 → BNA 19:44UA 2784	4h 24m	69%	53%
Southwest Details →	CLE 17:55 → DEN 19:10WN 2887	1h 00m Denver	DEN 20:10 → BNA 23:45WN 4429	6h 50m	65%	46%
Delta Details →	CLE 17:11 → JFK 18:44DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	JFK 19:31 → BNA 21:03DL 4908 · flown by Endeavor	4h 52m	57%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON