Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4677 at 05:18, 5%.

Safest bet that day AA 4677 CLE 05:18 → LGA 06:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest YX 4675 CLE 19:14 → LGA 21:02 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4677 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 05:18	LGA 06:59	5%	4%	0.5%	91%
YX 4372 Republic	CLE 12:27	LGA 14:24	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 5773 Republic	CLE 12:59	LGA 14:47	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4388 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 13:59	LGA 15:43	26%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 4513 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 14:53	LGA 16:49	27%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 4758 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 16:02	LGA 17:49	31%	7%	0.7%	70%
YX 5767 Republic	CLE 16:24	LGA 18:12	34%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 19:12	LGA 20:55	37%	9%	0.8%	59%
YX 4675 Republic	CLE 19:14	LGA 21:02	39%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 5177 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:00	LGA 07:42	13%	7%	6.3%	87%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 16:15	LGA 18:00	16%	10%	10.6%	84%
DL 5193 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:17	LGA 11:59	19%	15%	2.1%	81%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 13:00	LGA 14:51	26%	14%	7.5%	74%
DL 5174 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:26	LGA 21:14	46%	28%	18.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON