Today: OH 5434 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet today OH 5434 CLE 06:29 → PHL 08:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2893 CLE 17:23 → PHL 19:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5434 PSA	CLE 06:29	PHL 08:02	7%	5%	1.7%	no record
OH 5453 PSA	CLE 06:09	PHL 07:53	8%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 3302 American Flight history →	CLE 07:05	PHL 08:40	10%	4%	0.9%	93%
OH 5028 PSA	CLE 12:04	PHL 13:43	28%	9%	2.7%	no record
AA 5129 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 17:12	PHL 18:47	28%	9%	1.2%	64%
OH 5360 PSA	CLE 18:55	PHL 20:36	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2893 American	CLE 17:23	PHL 19:00	33%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 5847 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:52	PHL 12:28	9%	5%	1.5%	91%
AA 5862 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:31	PHL 21:09	20%	9%	9.2%	80%
AA 5861 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 15:03	PHL 16:43	36%	17%	4.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON