Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1052 at 12:51 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1052 CLT 12:51 → AUS 14:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 434 CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1052 American	CLT 12:51	AUS 14:47	26%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 818 American Flight history →	CLT 09:05	AUS 11:09	28%	6%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
AA 1419 American Flight history →	CLT 10:23	AUS 12:15	33%	8%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
AA 3070 American	CLT 14:47	AUS 16:43	33%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1408 American Flight history →	CLT 14:56	AUS 16:45	33%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 841 American	CLT 19:19	AUS 21:24	34%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1905 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	AUS 20:57	35%	9%	0.9%	58%
AA 434 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	AUS 22:17	41%	8%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON