Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:53 pm at Charlotte); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 15:22, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Bangor on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 15:22 → ORD 15:37UA 3491 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → BGR 21:47UA 5681 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:01 → LGA 18:47DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	3h 25m New York	LGA 22:12 → BGR 23:39DL 5396 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	91%	69%
United Details →	CLT 15:55 → EWR 18:01UA 3456 · flown by Republic	3h 41m Newark	EWR 21:42 → BGR 23:15UA 3408 · flown by Republic	7h 20m	97%	68%
American Details →	CLT 15:25 → ORD 16:46AA 2907	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 19:08 → BGR 22:57AA 340	7h 32m	91%	67%
American Details →	CLT 15:03 → PHL 16:46AA 864	3h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 19:55 → BGR 21:54AA 668	6h 51m	87%	46%
American Details →	CLT 16:47 → DCA 18:22AA 3263	3h 42m Washington	DCA 22:04 → BGR 23:59AA 5436 · flown by PSA	7h 12m	90%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON