Today: AA 2349 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet today AA 2349 CLT 07:05 → BHM 07:46 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 362 CLT 22:28 → BHM 23:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2349 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	BHM 07:46	14%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 5043 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 23:00	BHM 23:31	16%	5%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
AA 6475 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 12:01	BHM 12:40	20%	7%	0.3%	85%
AA 4932 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 11:30	BHM 12:09	20%	7%	0.3%	87%
OH 5068 PSA	CLT 09:18	BHM 09:49	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5579 PSA	CLT 14:44	BHM 15:15	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:58	BHM 21:29	24%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 5584 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:17	BHM 17:48	26%	7%	0.6%	81%
AA 5075 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:40	BHM 14:14	26%	6%	0.5%	62%
AA 362 American Flight history →	CLT 22:28	BHM 23:00	28%	6%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON