Today: OH 5197 at 11:34 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet today OH 5197 CLT 11:34 → BNA 12:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2402 CLT 18:13 → BNA 18:39 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OH 5197 PSA	CLT 11:34	BNA 12:02	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5083 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:05	BNA 09:49	17%	5%	0.7%	84%
WN 1220 Southwest	CLT 07:09	BNA 07:01	20%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 1295 American	CLT 12:54	BNA 13:23	21%	4%	0.3%	no record
WN 2694 Southwest	CLT 11:15	BNA 11:39	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1168 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 21:15	BNA 21:45	22%	6%	0.6%	32%
AA 2818 American	CLT 07:46	BNA 07:47	22%	5%	0.3%	no record
WN 4886 Southwest	CLT 21:00	BNA 21:24	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1644 American Flight history →	CLT 21:59	BNA 22:25	25%	8%	1.2%	62%
AA 526 American Flight history →	CLT 23:17	BNA 23:48	26%	7%	1.2%	71%
AA 3047 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	BNA 13:30	28%	6%	0.2%	64%
AA 1526 American Flight history →	CLT 15:08	BNA 15:36	31%	9%	0.3%	53%
WN 914 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 16:00	BNA 16:30	33%	10%	0.2%	40%
AA 2360 American	CLT 15:14	BNA 15:44	33%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 519 American Flight history →	CLT 16:36	BNA 17:04	35%	10%	0.3%	78%worse than usual
AA 1497 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	BNA 18:34	37%	12%	0.3%	58%
AA 2402 American	CLT 18:13	BNA 18:39	39%	14%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON