Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5648 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5648 CLT 06:05 → BOS 08:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2595 CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5648 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 06:05	BOS 08:31	6%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 09:40	BOS 12:06	10%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	CLT 07:06	BOS 09:19	11%	4%	1.0%	92%
AA 2528 American	CLT 07:12	BOS 09:22	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1533 American Flight history →	CLT 08:55	BOS 11:08	14%	4%	0.9%	96%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:20	BOS 15:56	15%	6%	0.6%	73%
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:34	BOS 20:15	15%	6%	0.7%	64%
AA 1094 American Flight history →	CLT 08:52	BOS 11:00	18%	5%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
AA 2618 American	CLT 11:44	BOS 14:15	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1809 American	CLT 10:07	BOS 12:15	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:37	BOS 15:53	25%	6%	0.8%	67%
AA 1143 American	CLT 13:37	BOS 16:07	25%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1843 American Flight history →	CLT 22:26	BOS 00:37	26%	6%	1.0%	71%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	CLT 15:45	BOS 18:04	28%	9%	0.8%	55%
AA 1422 American Flight history →	CLT 17:47	BOS 20:10	30%	9%	0.9%	51%
AA 1901 American	CLT 15:26	BOS 17:53	30%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2595 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	BOS 20:59	30%	9%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON