Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1809 · CLT → AVP

departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVP?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AVP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.16 in

AVP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1809 · CLT → AVP

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVP?