Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AA 1809 · CLT → AVP

departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVP?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.81 in

AVP (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1809 · CLT → AVP

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVP?