Today: AA 1203 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet today AA 1203 CLT 08:53 → BUF 10:38 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1486 CLT 17:11 → BUF 18:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1203 American Flight history →	CLT 08:53	BUF 10:38	25%	5%	0.2%	83%
AA 703 American Flight history →	CLT 21:05	BUF 22:51	25%	10%	0.8%	71%
AA 2442 American Flight history →	CLT 13:10	BUF 14:54	35%	8%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
AA 1614 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	BUF 18:43	35%	10%	0.3%	59%
AA 1486 American Flight history →	CLT 17:11	BUF 18:55	39%	11%	0.3%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON