Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1614 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1614 · CLT → BUF

departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1614 · CLT → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?