Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1614 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AA 1614 · CLT → BUF

departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.28 in

BUF (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1614 · CLT → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?