Today: AA 2962 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet today AA 2962 CLT 09:16 → DSM 10:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2241 CLT 22:44 → DSM 00:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2962 American Flight history →	CLT 09:16	DSM 10:54	17%	7%	0.5%	81%
AA 1763 American Flight history →	CLT 11:31	DSM 12:56	23%	7%	0.4%	64%
AA 1393 American	CLT 22:32	DSM 00:10	30%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2241 American Flight history →	CLT 22:44	DSM 00:09	30%	9%	0.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON