Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1405 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1405 CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 419 CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1405 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:00	DTW 07:42	5%	2%	0.4%	94%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	CLT 13:17	DTW 15:00	11%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 1639 Delta Flight history →	CLT 09:42	DTW 11:30	11%	3%	0.3%	91%
DL 8861 Delta	CLT 01:27	DTW 03:11	12%	4%	0.3%	no record
DL 1430 Delta Flight history →	CLT 17:02	DTW 18:52	13%	5%	0.7%	67%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	CLT 07:38	DTW 09:32	14%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 1675 Delta	CLT 17:29	DTW 19:12	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1791 American Flight history →	CLT 07:28	DTW 09:17	15%	3%	0.4%	90%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	CLT 11:28	DTW 13:17	20%	6%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
AA 1770 American Flight history →	CLT 13:43	DTW 15:31	23%	5%	0.9%	69%
AA 1897 American	CLT 14:38	DTW 16:30	23%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 370 American Flight history →	CLT 22:51	DTW 00:41	27%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 1794 American Flight history →	CLT 17:25	DTW 19:18	28%	6%	0.9%	62%
AA 1443 American	CLT 17:23	DTW 19:06	30%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 419 American Flight history →	CLT 20:46	DTW 22:34	33%	7%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON