Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3422 at 18:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3422 CLT 18:00 → GSP 19:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 5524 CLT 20:35 → GSP 21:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 18:00	GSP 19:00	20%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 1705 American	CLT 14:42	GSP 15:36	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 5440 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:28	GSP 23:21	26%	8%	0.7%	70%
AA 5203 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:44	GSP 17:47	28%	9%	0.7%	56%
AA 5504 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:30	GSP 23:24	30%	8%	0.7%	54%
OH 5613 PSA	CLT 20:36	GSP 21:29	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2762 American Flight history →	CLT 18:58	GSP 19:46	33%	13%	0.9%	73%
AA 5524 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:35	GSP 21:30	34%	9%	0.7%	55%
AA 5798 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:16	GSP 08:18	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
AA 5802 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:07	GSP 12:14	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
AA 5799 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:05	GSP 10:12	11%	3%	0.0%	89%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSP 14:07	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
AA 6131 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:40	GSP 15:42	31%	7%	1.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON