Today: OH 5482 at 11:09 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet today OH 5482 CLT 11:09 → ILM 12:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2826 CLT 20:20 → ILM 21:26 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OH 5482 PSA	CLT 11:09	ILM 12:18	16%	4%	0.4%	no record
OH 5408 PSA	CLT 22:59	ILM 00:09	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1531 American	CLT 12:57	ILM 14:01	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:24	ILM 17:34	23%	4%	0.5%	85%
AA 1933 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	ILM 19:15	27%	7%	0.5%	76%
AA 2831 American	CLT 18:31	ILM 19:39	28%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 1017 American Flight history →	CLT 22:25	ILM 23:33	33%	9%	1.2%	72%
AA 2826 American Flight history →	CLT 20:20	ILM 21:26	37%	9%	1.2%	71%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:15	ILM 12:33	12%	7%	1.6%	88%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	ILM 14:19	14%	2%	0.0%	86%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:20	ILM 10:38	18%	3%	0.0%	82%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 16:24	ILM 17:41	29%	13%	1.4%	71%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:36	ILM 15:50	32%	10%	0.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON