Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1933 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1933 · CLT → ILM

departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1933 · CLT → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?