Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1933 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1933 · CLT → ILM

departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.81 in

ILM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1933 · CLT → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?