Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1029 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1029 CLT 08:11 → JFK 10:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 657 CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1029 American Flight history →	CLT 08:11	JFK 10:12	14%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 2278 American	CLT 07:38	JFK 09:34	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 374 American Flight history →	CLT 09:27	JFK 11:29	16%	5%	1.2%	75%
AA 2024 American	CLT 09:38	JFK 11:33	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
YX 5688 Republic	CLT 14:24	JFK 16:17	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1221 American	CLT 12:42	JFK 14:35	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	CLT 11:45	JFK 13:47	24%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 1727 American Flight history →	CLT 20:54	JFK 23:00	30%	9%	1.0%	62%
AA 657 American Flight history →	CLT 18:02	JFK 20:06	33%	8%	0.9%	58%
DL 5079 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 06:00	JFK 08:00	11%	7%	4.0%	89%
DL 5052 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 10:01	JFK 11:55	15%	7%	2.2%	85%
DL 5049 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:52	JFK 16:00	26%	13%	9.6%	74%
DL 5067 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 19:26	JFK 21:39	31%	16%	8.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON