Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 25–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 596 CLT 18:30 → LAS 20:17 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 750 CLT 14:25 → LAS 16:03 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 596 American Flight history →	CLT 18:30	LAS 20:17	25%	5%	0.4%	69%
AA 1596 American	CLT 22:32	LAS 00:11	26%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 1275 American Flight history →	CLT 20:53	LAS 22:30	26%	6%	0.4%	63%
AA 1031 American Flight history →	CLT 16:51	LAS 18:35	26%	6%	0.3%	71%
AA 2199 American	CLT 20:32	LAS 22:13	26%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 750 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	LAS 16:03	28%	5%	0.2%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	CLT 14:31 → PHX 15:50AA 3220	1h 17m Phoenix	PHX 17:07 → LAS 18:22AA 1565	6h 51m	84%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON