Today: AA 372 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–42%.

Safest bet today AA 372 CLT 07:20 → MEM 07:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5055 CLT 17:11 → MEM 18:02 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 372 American	CLT 07:20	MEM 07:49	18%	4%	0.3%	no record
OH 5093 PSA	CLT 11:14	MEM 12:05	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 1354 American Flight history →	CLT 08:59	MEM 09:49	22%	4%	0.3%	92%worse than usual
AA 2110 American Flight history →	CLT 09:10	MEM 10:00	23%	4%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AA 5287 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:52	MEM 15:53	28%	10%	0.5%	69%
AA 1372 American Flight history →	CLT 23:08	MEM 00:07	28%	9%	0.9%	72%
AA 2116 American Flight history →	CLT 13:23	MEM 14:09	31%	6%	0.2%	68%
AA 1790 American Flight history →	CLT 13:18	MEM 14:08	32%	5%	0.2%	96%worse than usual
AA 2392 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	MEM 23:45	34%	9%	0.8%	64%
AA 1641 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	MEM 21:35	37%	10%	0.8%	72%
AA 5269 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:15	MEM 18:18	40%	12%	0.6%	56%
OH 5055 PSA	CLT 17:11	MEM 18:02	42%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON