Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2116 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2116 · CLT → MEM

departs 1:23 PM ET · arrives 2:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.32 in

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2116 · CLT → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?