Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2116 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2116 · CLT → MEM

departs 1:23 PM ET · arrives 2:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at MEM that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

MEM (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2116 · CLT → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?