Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1165 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1165 CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2187 CLT 18:55 → MIA 20:57 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1165 American Flight history →	CLT 05:15	MIA 07:20	10%	3%	0.4%	92%
AA 770 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	MIA 09:12	17%	3%	0.5%	83%
AA 1436 American Flight history →	CLT 09:25	MIA 11:37	19%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 3184 American Flight history →	CLT 09:18	MIA 11:23	20%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 969 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	MIA 13:11	20%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 2594 American	CLT 10:08	MIA 12:17	22%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2768 American	CLT 10:57	MIA 12:56	25%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2428 American	CLT 13:11	MIA 15:20	25%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2912 American Flight history →	CLT 13:30	MIA 15:38	28%	6%	1.0%	75%
AA 488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	MIA 20:21	37%	8%	1.8%	63%
AA 2231 American Flight history →	CLT 16:40	MIA 18:57	37%	8%	1.8%	64%
AA 400 American Flight history →	CLT 16:36	MIA 18:35	37%	8%	1.8%	67%
AA 1596 American Flight history →	CLT 22:39	MIA 00:46	37%	6%	1.9%	60%
AA 2321 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MIA 22:21	39%	7%	1.3%	51%
F9 3699 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 18:48	MIA 21:05	39%	14%	1.9%	66%
AA 2187 American	CLT 18:55	MIA 20:57	39%	8%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON