Today: AA 2287 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet today AA 2287 CLT 07:32 → MSY 08:12 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2203 CLT 16:34 → MSY 17:41 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2287 American Flight history →	CLT 07:32	MSY 08:12	23%	6%	0.5%	91%worse than usual
AA 2180 American Flight history →	CLT 07:37	MSY 08:38	25%	5%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
AA 1769 American	CLT 10:57	MSY 12:02	33%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	MSY 23:59	35%	10%	1.3%	69%
AA 2170 American Flight history →	CLT 11:55	MSY 12:59	37%	6%	0.5%	63%
AA 2566 American	CLT 20:12	MSY 21:17	39%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	CLT 16:45	MSY 17:50	39%	9%	0.6%	79%worse than usual
AA 2203 American Flight history →	CLT 16:34	MSY 17:41	42%	10%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON